With Few New Cars on Lots, U.S. Auto Sales Likely Fell Sharply in the First Quarter, Analysts Say

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"Skyrocketing gas prices were top of mind for consumers in March, but the lack of inventory is what ultimately depressed new vehicle sales in the first quarter," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights.

Edmunds' forecast calls for a 15.2% year-over-year decline in first-quarter auto sales. The company reported that inventories remain very thin, with just 20 days' supply of gas-powered vehicles and 21 days' worth of electric vehicles available. Automakers typically aim to have enough vehicles in inventory to last 60 to 70 days.

Not only are automakers still grappling with Covid-related supply-chain disruptions, Caldwell noted, they may now be facing additional supply challenges in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. auto sales have traditionally ramped up in March as spring weather arrives in much of the U.S., noted Cox Automotive's senior economist, Charlie Chesborough. He thinks that consumer demand would probably be strong right now – if only automakers had more vehicles to sell.

"Low unemployment, relatively low interest rates — the conditions are right for higher sales," Chesborough said. But, he said, until automakers are able to boost the number of vehicles on dealers' lots, sales will remain weak.

 

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