China and Europe are driving most of the adoption, with North America a distant third source of sales. Up next: emerging markets.The world is about to pass another important milestone in electric vehicle adoption: 20-million plug-in vehicles on the road globally, come June, according to BNEF estimates. That’s remarkable growth from only 1-million EVs on roads in 2016.
. In BP’s 2016 outlook for example, the company expected a fleet of 71-million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2035. Based on the latest sales data, BNEF now expects that to be achieved by 2025, a full 10 years ahead of schedule. Most of the world’s plug-in vehicles are fully electric, but there are also 5.3-million plug-in hybrids. Europe accounts for most of them. The plug-in hybrids have helped automakers meet Europe’s increasingly stringent targets for reducing carbon emissions from vehicles. At BNEF, we’re expecting the market to shift away from plug-in hybrids in the coming years, as governments cut subsidies for them, and as automakers roll out their latest fully electric models.
Attention will eventually shift to the big emerging auto markets in the world, such as India, Brazil, Mexico and Southeast Asia. EV adoption has barely started in these countries and regions, yet they are key for the growth in global EV adoption to continue once the larger markets start to saturate. There are several encouraging signs. In India’s three-wheeler market, over 50% of sales are already electric.