Shares in Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Sibanye-Stillwater rose to record highs in March. Then they retreated, hard. But with a risk premium being attached to palladium — which Russia produces in abundance — it’s hard to tell if we’re at the top, or in a lull in respect of platinum group metal shares.
For now, there’s no avoiding Russia’s influence. It controls about 38% of palladium output, so sanctions imposed in condemnatory response to its invasion of Ukraine would be a price-altering development. So far there’s been no indication of PGMs falling into the sanctions net. But on April 8, the London Platinum & Palladium Market suspended two government-owned Russian platinum refiners from its good delivery and accreditation list.
Palladium, mined near Rustenburg, has always been the ugly-step-sister compared to the other minerals. It is definitely more 'future-proof' however. 👌