If that should happen, the most likely result is that we would find much more lithium and find better and cheaper and cleaner ways to extract it — or we would find different battery formulations that don’t use lithium. While it is true that there is no metal lighter than lithium, and low weight is essential for car batteries, there are many promising approaches in the lab already, including the use of lithium’s cousin, sodium.
But this reversal of the typical economist’s rule is not just true for pure technologies like transistors. We saw it happen with oil and gas. After non-futurist economists predicted “peak oil” and major price shocks in the long term, the prices of oil and gas actually fell due to new exploration and new techniques like fracking. While “Increasing demand lowers prices” is not a “law,” it is the likely way to bet.
That said, it is possible that lithium supply would be “solved” by simply finding more lithium and mining it in destructive, water-intensive ways. However, that is far from assured — it is simply what we know how to do now. As lithium grows in demand, efforts will be made to mine it more efficiently and less destructively, particularly if environmental laws demand cleaner ways of extracting it.
It turns out the 250 mile range of the LFP cars is more than enough for most customers. I drive a car with such range myself. While people lust over 350 or even 500 miles of range, only a few people need that and will buy it if it’s a lot more expensive. The bigger problem is batteries for very large vehicles, like trucks, SUVs and buses where the lightest and smallest batteries may not be optional. Small, light vehicles can do fine with slightly less top-end lithium.
Lithium mining is, today, hugely destructive. Future fairy dust technology has not yet been invented that has stopped lithium mining from being hugely destructive.
Ev cause same environmental damages as oil but with more human slavery
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