Can South Africa really transform itself from an electric vehicle wasteland into a model global citizen in three years?
How will they get there? Transforming the local vehicle manufacturing and buying landscape is a huge ask. How huge is made clear in a discussion document published by Naamsa this week.the motor industry will spend $515bn by 2030 to move away from petrol- and diesel-driven internal combustion engines . The shift may not be absolute; among various emissions-free fuel solutions, including hydrogen, scientists are trying to create ICE-friendly, carbon-neutral substitutes.
What no-one makes here yet is battery-electric vehicles , which are wholly reliant on plug-in charging. Many developed countries are going flat-out for this technology. South Africa, however, is certain to lean on hybrids in the short to medium term. In the next few years, Naamsa and the DTIC expect them to account for at least half of South African EV sales.
Some shrivelling is already happening — though not related directly to the ICE-NEV divide. Under the original terms of the government’s 2021-2035 South African Automotive Master Plan, the industry set out to more than double 2019 vehicle production of 632,000, to 1.4-million. But that’s only if the stations draw power from Eskom — a nightmare scenario for EV owners. Throw in renewable energy, such as solar or wind, and the total bill could almost treble, to R90bn.
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