electric robotaxis, cheaper and more convenient than a private car, once seemed to threaten the entire industry. Six years ago it was assumed that nobody would buy cars any more, says Amnon Shashua, boss of Mobileye, an autonomous-driving tech firm. At best carmakers would be “white label” suppliers of cheap mass-produced hardware to ride-hailing firms such as Uber or tech giants that had mastered self-driving software.
A first myth to dispel is that the young are giving up driving for good. In car-mad America, which has around 890 cars per 1,000 people, only 1% of new cars are bought by people under 24. The share of 16-year-olds with a licence fell between 1983 and 2018, from 46% to 26%, but the decline for older people was less precipitous. In 1983 95% of 35- to 39-year-olds had a licence compared with 91% in 2017. In Britain the proportion of over-21s with licences has hardly budged in 20 years.
Yet it will be a long time before jumping in a robotaxi is commonplace. Services are “geofenced” to specific areas. Cruise’s 30 cars in San Francisco must for now avoid the busy financial district. Hours of operation may be limited to less congested times and safety drivers or remote monitoring are required. As the cost of the technology falls, robotaxis may spread., a bank, thinks the market could be worth $2.
As with other software, carmakers want to retain some control. Mobileye, acquired by Intel in 2017 for $15bn and recently floated, switched from a “black box” approach to the open-source system of its competitors, Qualcomm and Nvidia, when it became clear that carmakers were reluctant to risk unknown tech. It says its system will be ready by 2025 and, at roughly $15,000, will cost the same as Tesla’s Autopilot. Mercedes-Benz may be the first to give Tesla competition.
Self - driving vehicles will emerge , but only gradually , IDC says .
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