As part of the fairly straightforward propaganda surrounding the White House’s effort to ban gasoline-powered cars, President Biden routinely implies that there will be a relatively seamless exchange where current gasoline-powered cars and trucks are traded for shinier, more hip, better electric cars and trucks.For context, there are about 300 million cars and trucks in the United States at the moment.
The mining industry will probably not be able to meet the increase in demand. For instance, by 2030, “there will only be enough lithium and cobalt for 15.6 million electric vehicles.” Automakers have indicated they intend to build 40 million electric vehicles in 2030. There is probably not a lot of help on the way. The International Energy Agency has concluded that it typically takes more than 16 years for mines to be permitted and constructed before they begin to produce minerals and finished products.
That reduction in cars and trucks will happen either because consumers can’t afford a new car or because there aren’t enough minerals to build enough electric cars and trucks. Such a contraction in the number of cars and trucks will make life poorer and more difficult for most Americans.