As of midmorning, the Weather Service office in Paducah estimated that 4 to 6 inches of rain had fallen in West Paducah, and 6 to 8 inches in Mayfield and surrounding rural areas. Those values are probably conservative. Another 1 to 4 inches of rain is likely through early afternoon, meaning a few locations could see a foot or more when all is said and done.
Paducah’s Barkley Airport had logged 6.28 inches of rain as of 8:50 a.m. Central time. An exceptional 2.32 inches of rain fell between 6:53 and 7:53 a.m.; that’s the third-greatest single-hour rainfall total recorded at the airport. Already, the 4.4 inches that fell at the airport can be considered a hundred-year rain event, meaning it has less than a 1 percent likelihood of happening in any given year. A nearby station in Paducah also picked up 5.87 inches in six hours, which would be a 200-year rain event.10.45 inches in Graves County, according to Kentucky Mesonet.6.84 inches in Paducah.4.68 inches in New Concord, Ky.in a few rural areas in between weather stations.
It’s estimated that the threshold for a thousand-year rain event, or one that has a 0.1 percent chance of striking a location in a particular year, is 9.83 inches in 24 hours. Therefore, the 10-inch totals qualify the ongoing event as a thousand-year storm.The heavy rain developed along a stagnant boundary known as a stationary frontIt marks the divide between a cooler, drier air mass to the northeast and a warmer, moisture-rich Gulf of Mexico air mass banked to the southwest.
That stationary front serves as the focus for downpours, which ride along it like rail cars on a track. That induces what meteorologists call “training,” which means exceptionally heavy rainfall continues to move over the same area.It also is a recipe for the process by which humid air rides up and over a shallower lip of cooler/denser air. That acts as a ramp to pump moisture high into the atmosphere, forming clouds and bands of intense precipitation.
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