DETROIT—
Even if the industry boosts EV sales to the level the EPA recommends, any reduction in pollution could prove more modest than the agency expects. The Associated Press has estimated that nearly 80 percent of vehicles being driven in the US— more than 200 million—would still run on gasoline or diesel fuel.
“The EPA proposal is a really great start to putting us on a Paris-compatible path,” said Slowik, whose group provides research and analysis to environmental regulators. “But no, it isn’t enough to comply with the Paris accord.” As the biggest source of pollution in the United States, transportation generates roughly 29 percent of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions, according to the EPA. Passenger vehicles are by far the worst transportation polluters, spewing 58 percent of that sector’s greenhouse gas pollution.
Dave Cooke, a senior vehicles analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that even with slow vehicle turnover, studies show the EPA’s proposal would be an important step toward a zero-carbon transportation system by 2050. In addition, power plants that fuel EVs, he noted, will be converted to renewable energy such as wind and solar.