to adopt a new technology can be a slog at first. The humble microwave oven, for example, took two decades of lukewarm sales to reach just a tenth of US households. But then came the 1980s, and quicker than you could say “Hot Pockets”, microwaves had spread to nearly every kitchen.
Most successful new technologies — televisions, mobile phones, LED lightbulbs — follow an S-shaped adoption curve Today, US EV sales are rising fast — up 42% in the second quarter compared to the same period a year ago — but haven’t quite matched the explosive trajectory of other countries that crossed over. That could change as Tesla, the world’s biggest EV maker, prepares to launch its
The analysis above is for vehicles that run on batteries only. Some countries, primarily in Europe, were quicker to adopt plug-in hybrids, which have smaller batteries backed by a petrol-powered engine. Other countries, including the US and China, mostly skipped hybrids and went straight to fully electric vehicles. If hybrids are included, the world sold more than 10 million plug-in vehicles last year, a figure that could triple by 2027, according to forecasts by BloombergNEF.
The concept of tipping points has often been used to describe price thresholds that trigger wider adoption. In the early days of renewable energy, for example, reaching the point at which it became cheaper to install new solar farms than to build new coal plants accelerated solar demand from utilities.
That means individual car makers also have a tipping point: the threshold after which EV sales become self-reinforcing. In Europe’s experience, once 10% of a car maker’s quarterly sales came with plugs, that share tripled in less than two years, on average.Is the global transition to EVs inevitable?