The pace of adoption in California picked up significantly once EVs reached 5% of new-car sales, a threshold at which preferences start to flip for mainstream car buyers, according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of EV adoption curves around the world. California was one of the first major car markets to reach that tipping point, in 2018, and so far 23 countries have been added to the list.
If California were itself a country, it would now rank fourth in terms of overall EV sales; only China, the US and Germany sell more. The pace of adoption in the state shows no signs of slowing, either, with second-quarter EV sales rising 70% over the same period in 2022. The US as a whole is just three years behind California, and currently tracing its path. If the trend continues, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by 2026.
For all good technologies, there comes a point at which sticking with the old tech no longer makes sense. Think smartphones in the 21st century or color TVs in the 1960s. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream.Figuring out when EVs will shift into mass-adoption mode is proving an existential challenge for the automotive industry.
In a milestone that should be setting off alarm bells for traditional manufacturers, Tesla recently overtook Toyota as the top-selling car brand in California. The first global automaker to reach mass EV scale, Tesla controls 60% of the US EV market. It spent this year dropping prices and adding new features while maintaining industry-leading margins. Outside of China, car companies have yet to produce a single EV that approaches the sales volumes of Tesla’s Model 3 or Model Y. Until that kind of scale is achieved, the transition will continue to be a costly grind.