Why delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars won’t slow UK's shift to electric vehicles

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The UK has delayed its ban on the sale of new cars which burn petrol or diesel in internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2030 to 2035. But the decision still sends a confusing message, particularly for carmakers who on average take six-to-seven years to develop new vehicles.

The UK has delayed its ban on the sale of new cars which burn petrol or diesel in internal combustion engines from 2030 to 2035.For these manufacturers, certainty is key to their business. If they gear up to produce an all-electric fleet and suddenly buyers still want ICE vehicles and they haven’t produced enough, they will have stockpiles of unwanted cars which may have to be

Employees work on the assembly line of Voyah electric vehicles at Dongfeng Motors Voyah Automobile factory on 23 August, 2023 in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China. Any new technology follows a cycle of adoption that is difficult for government intervention to interrupt. The exception is for fast-acting bans, which attempt to immediately remove products deemed dangerous or harmful from a market.

If you are a car manufacturer working to a bloc sales model that averages around 2030 , then you are not going to put resources into producing more of a technology that is being phased out and cannot be sold throughout most of that bloc.It may feel that this kind of anti-climate action will make people think twice about buying an EV. But the reasons that people choose an EV are rarely, if ever, due to phase-out targets.

While Sunak’s decision to delay the ban may allow some to breathe a sigh of relief, all the data and theory in this area indicates that the inevitable switch to EV shows no sign of abating – among consumers or manufacturers.Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue.In times of uncertainty you need journalism you can trust.

 

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