Robert Koopman, chief economist at the World Trade Organisation in Geneva, Switzerland, April 2 2019. Picture: REUTERS/DENIS BALIBOUSE
In its annual forecast, the WTO said trade had been weighed down by new tariffs and retaliatory measures, weaker economic growth, volatility in financial markets, and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries.WTO director-general Roberto Azêvedo told a news conference that the lower forecast was no surprise, given the trade tensions between the US and China.
“I think it’s pretty clear that any automobile tariff would likely have bigger knock-on effects through the global economy than what we see from the US-China conflict.” “The UK’s own analysis suggests that ‘no deal’ or ‘hard Brexit’ would shave 7.6% off British GDP. That is a big number. It would force our numbers down to that lower part of our range,” Koopman said. “If we end up in the autumn with a revision, my guess is the likelihood of a revision is that it would be downward, based on any number of factors from Brexit to no resolution in the US-China trade conflict, and other trade conflicts going on.