Large stack of coins with a fuel pump and a small stack of coins with a plug for electric vehicles.Europeans will buy 2 million fewer electric vehicles a year in 2030 than investment researcher Jefferies had previously predicted, joining other forecasters busily slashing predictions.
As the market for EVs weakens, manufacturers will be wondering if this is just a short-term blip or a serious change of direction. If the latter, the automotive industry will face an existential threat if governments fail to dilute or end mandates to ban the sale of new combustion vehicles. A couple of months ago investment bank UBS said Europeans will buy almost nine million fewer electric vehicles between 2024 and 2030 than expected.EA College Football 25 Kicks Off A Wave Of Sports Video Game ReleasesUBS cut its forecast for European EV sales to 8.3 million in 2030 compared with its previous estimate of 9.6 million.
As these targets look more onerous, German manufacturers have been lobbying politicians seeking to water them down. The European Parliament elections held early this month returned more conservative members likely to accept weaker targets. Expect green lobby groups like Brussels-based Transport & Environment to react vociferously.Jefferies said sales will reach 10.4 million in 2035 compared with its previous forecast of 11.9 million and 85%.