page. While some numbers are still uncertain, they do not predict a cost of just 18 cents/mile. In fact, for the Tesla-owned cars, a COGS of 40 cents per passenger-mile is predicted. This still works with a $1/mile price.Of course, to operate this network. Tesla has to produce a car ready for full autonomy -- most of the day was about that -- and be accepted by regulators. Musk asserts that Tesla will reach that in-house in 2020, but that regulators will take more time.
It is an open question how many people will release a car for network operation. Doing so means keeping the car clean and free of personal property It means not having access to your car It means that the battery is depleted while it is out working, though Tesla can arrange charging. It may mean more supercharging, which causes more battery degradation.
Only Tesla predicts it cah deploy service in lots of cities at once, because they will be relying on customers to provide the cars and the lower cost off-lease cars. For other companies, even those with as much money as Google, deployment to lots of cities at once is difficult, both from a cash perspective and a management bandwidth perspective.
Oddly, Tesla's 11 year, million-mile taxi life may be a disadvantage. It seems unlikely that robotaxi technology won't be on a solid improvement curve over the next 15 years. While Tesla can and will replace the computer board, and possibly can replace the cameras, it is harder to keep everything up to date. Tesla mistakenly bets that what they put into a Model 3 today will be competitive in 2030 against a competitor's robotaxi designed in 2028.
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