Experts predict more than two million UK car sales in 2024

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Cox Automotive forecasts up to 2.2m registrations, but low-margin fleet sales and ZEV penalties are retail headwinds

Industry giant Cox Automotive predicts the UK new car market will exceed two million registrations in 2024. The firm, which owns a suite of automotive companies including Manheim Auctions, forecast a ‘baseline’ registration figure of 2.06m, along with potential ‘downside’ and ‘upside’ estimates of 1.93m and 2.20m units. The baseline figure would leave 2024 registrations up 8.3% year-on-year. Downside and upside scenarios would herald increases of either 1.2% or 15.8%.

“The market is moving in the right direction a gradual recovery could arguably be said to be underway. However, it’s important to acknowledge that significant challenges remain. We’re not quite out of the woods yet, and a full return to pre-pandemic levels might still take some time. "The numbers are charged with positivity, but the market is a long way off what could reasonably be characterised as ‘normal’.

 

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